月度市场更新

2020年11月

每月市场更新, 由到的见解创建, is a report that analyzes data from multiple sources including but not limited to FreightWaves 声纳,DAT, FTR运输情报,摩根士丹利研究,美国银行内部数据, 商业杂志, 史蒂芬斯研究, 美国零售联合会和弗雷德经济数据从过去的一个月和去年同期.  

We know that market data is vital to making real-time business decisions, 到达物流, we are committed to giving you the data you need to better manage your freight.

执行概要

12bet的研究表明,与零售运输高峰季节和消费者支出模式的转变有关的卡车装载需求的波动,将给12bet目前正在经历的本已有限的容量环境带来额外的压力, 这将导致利率上升,现货市场在今年剩余时间内(可能到2021年上半年)更加活跃. 以下是该报告的一些高层观点: 

10月份现货交易量略有下降, 但在11月初又开始回升, 这表明零售旺季即将到来

干式货车的现货价格攀升至2美元的历史高点.40 per mile in October despite the slight easing of relative capacity, 这是运营商维持定价权的一个迹象 

与各自的合同费率相比,干式货车和冷藏的现货费率继续增加, an indication that shippers struggles to maintain routing guides are increasing 

司机短缺导致承运人的主动卡车利用率下降,并应导致至少到2021年上半年持续的运力限制

新卡车订单大幅增加,超过41辆,10月000套, 有证据表明,12bet正在投资扩大机队

由于消费者在零售商品上的支出增加,库存与销售比一直处于低位, fueling a sustained import rally to enable restocking of depleted retail inventories

南加州的长期投标被拒绝的情况正在上升,这是由于对支持全国补充库存努力的能力的需求

美国人的消费模式一直保持不变, they are traveling less and spending more on freight heavy durable goods, 如家具, 电子和家居装饰

卡车的需求

12bet认为,10月份的需求状况较9月份的峰值略有缓和. 这是自9月以来每年都会出现的趋势, 在那里,需求会因劳动节和季度末的推动而激增. 12bet继续看到不同指数的年成交量趋势存在差异, with 那些 heavily concentrated with consumer goods showing increases, 那些 这是考虑到工业和能源行业继续同比下降. 货运量继续保持强劲,接近历史高点,因不同行业的卡车载货需求波动引发了运输网络的不平衡,货主仍在应对. 

FreightWaves 声纳出港投标量指数(OTVI), 哪些衡量所有模式下的合同货运量, is up more than 65% year-over-year in November but moderated slightly in October, 月底的交易量与月初相比大致持平. It is important to note that OTVI includes both accepted and rejected load tenders, 因此,12bet必须用相应的外标拒收指数(OTRI)对该指数进行折现,以揭示接受投标量的真实衡量标准. If we were to apply this method to the year-over-year OTVI values, 体积的增加量下降到大约22.7%. 干货车(Dry Van)和冷藏货车(Reefer)招标量指数也分别同比上涨55%和75%以上, 等于24.4%和5.两种模式的实际体积分别增加了7%. Dry Van指数在10月份持平, but the Reefer Index continued to climb and is up more than 8% month-over-month.

DAT reported that dry van load posts took a slight step back in October, falling 5.与9月份的历史最高水平相比,月环比增长了9%, 但同比增长超过122%.

在十月的最后一周, FTR and Truckstop’s Total All Mode Spot Volume Index was down by about 7% from September, 同比增长102%,自2018年以来增长100%. These demand trends were driven by an 8% month-over-month decline from a record high, 同比增长126%, 为干货车现货量指数. 冷藏箱现货成交量指数上升了约11.10月份为8%,同比增长79%.

其余指标, ATA的卡车吨位指数和FTR的卡车装载指数, continue to indicate that the total trucking market is down on a year-over-year basis. 

经季节调整的ATA卡车吨位指数增加了6.7% month-over-month, but remained down for the sixth straight month, to 2.以7%的速度增长. 

FTR的卡车装载指数下降了5.3% year-over-year in September but remained relatively flat month-over-month.

卡车供应

声纳出站投标拒绝指数(OTRI)衡量的是承运人拒绝接受合同要求的货物的比率. 投标被拒绝的数量达到了当时的历史最高水平26份.10月份为86%,但由于市场状况略有缓解,整个月的增速有所放缓. 自那以来,被拒绝的投标数量创下了27件的新纪录.11月的47%. 这一数字同比增长了400%以上. 干式货车投标拒收指数在10月初达到顶峰,为35.0%,创历史新高. Dry van tender rejections have abated since but still remain elevated at 31.2%. 冷藏招标拒收指数为45.10月初87%的拒收数量创历史新高,直到11月,拒收数量达到47件.78%.

OTRI最近达到了27的历史高点.11月8日为47%

DAT装载与载重比衡量的是装载的总数量与载重板上载重的总数量的比较. 10月份,货车干重比降至4.33, a decrease of 21% month-over-month, but remains up 156% year-over-year. 冷藏货物与卡车的比率下降到8.7、减少6.月环比增长7%,但仍较上年同期增长155%. 预计10月份这一比例将同比下降,与9月份需求的回落相符. It is noteworthy that the % decreases month-over-month for both Van and Reefer were lower than in previous years; a sign that conditions have remained relatively tight heading into the upcoming peak retail shipping season.

Van和Reefer的L/T比率在11月MTD上升, a time when capacity Typically begins to tighten during retail peak season in Q4.

The Morgan Stanley Dry Van Freight Index is another measure of relative supply. 指数越高,市场状况越紧张. 该指数表明,12bet自10月初以来看到的情况与2017年的情况非常接近, we should expect to see the rest of the year play out in a very similar fashion, 从现在开始收紧. 

Truckstop/FTR市场需求指数(Truckstop/FTR Market Demand Index)衡量可用载重与可用载重的比率. 在下面的前两组图表中, load and truck availability are plotted separately for both dry van and reefer freight. In both cases, load availability was up, truck availability was down year-over-year. 这表明市场状况趋紧,需求持续上升,而供应持续下降. 这些趋势的结果是,市场需求指数(Market Demand Index)持平但有所上升,自第三季度初以来,该指数一直处于或接近历史高位.

卡车利率

尽管10月份需求有所放缓,但三种模式的卡车成本仍在继续上升. DAT报告说,干货车的现货费率增加了36.7% 1美元.从6月的每英里80美元涨到2美元.11月的第一周就有47人. 

干货车每分钟转2美元.10月份是40,增加了33.0% year-over-year and was the third straight month where rates hit a record high. 这表明,尽管本月情况略有缓解,但12bet仍保持了多大的谈判能力. 合同费率增加16.6% 1美元.99 to $2.在同一时期有32个.

合约-现货货车价差为0美元.57美元在7个月的时间里从0美元上下波动.从4月的40美元到- 0美元.11月到目前为止的最低点是16.

当即期汇率高于合约汇率时, it is a clear sign that we are going through an inflationary cycle in the market, shippers are likely struggling to maintain their routing guides. 这一利差仍在逐月扩大, putting an incredible amount of upward pressure on contract rates. This has resulted in six straight months of contract rate increases. 如果趋势与2018年类似的话, contract rates are likely to settle well above pre-pandemic levels.

能力的前景

运力限制是一个持续存在的问题,在可预见的未来将影响运输市场. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total driver employment was down 4.9月份同比增长7%. 有几个因素导致了越来越多的司机短缺. An aging workforce more susceptible to the virus; increased unemployment benefits; the closing of or limited throughput of driver schools; and the drug and alcohol clearinghouse regulations have led to significant declines in driver availability and active truck utilization. 

斯蒂芬斯研究公司报告称,大流行严重限制了驾驶员培训学校的吞吐量. Their research indicates that roughly 22% of driving schools remain closed, 要么暂时关闭,要么永久关闭. 剩下的学校, 其中82%的公司在有限的吞吐量下运营, 以平均57%的容量运行. 随着病毒病例数量的回升, 这些数字可能还会增加, 进一步限制吞吐量. 斯蒂芬斯研究公司认为,这些不利因素支持利率周期比以往周期中所看到的更长时间的延长.

美国银行(Bank of America)的《12bet》(Q4 Surface Transportation Industry Update)触及了自2020年1月以来实施的毒品和酒精清算所法规的影响. 截止到9月, year-to-date drug and alcohol violations have resulted in more than 40,000名司机被从这个行业开除. 许多人认为,由于担心无法通过与开始一份新工作相关的测试,行业推手没有像以往通胀周期那样迅速重返行业,部分原因在于清算所, 这使得新规定的全面影响难以衡量. 有一件事是肯定的, 新规定对整个行业的司机可用性产生了深远的影响.

活跃的卡车利用率, 积极从事货运的坐式卡车所占的份额, continues to suffer due to the ongoing challenges with driver availability. 话虽这么说, 如果即期汇率继续攀升, 司机将开始重新进入市场, 主动卡车的利用率应该会增加. FTR预测,随着2021年和2022年工业和能源领域的持续复苏,活跃的卡车利用率将会增加.

FTR报告称,10月份新卡车订单大幅增加,超过4.1万辆. This is the highest single month total since October 2018 and well above the 20,维持目前的产能水平需要000个单位. It is a sign that carriers are investing in expanding their fleets. In 2017/2018, 连续13个月新卡车订单超过20辆,为了解决产能短缺问题,需要000套设备. It is worth noting that at the time, active truck utilization was near 100%. We know the imbalance that exists today is more of a result of a driver shortage, 因此,除非驱动者也重返市场,否则对新资产的投资不会有那么大的影响.

体积前景

由于工业产量与国内出货量的关系,它是一个值得关注的重要指标. 截至9月底的最新工业生产数据显示,美国经济正回落至-0.自上个月以来6%. The slowing growth is likely due to the declines in auto production, 在经历了三个月的强劲复苏后,哪些市场的势头连续几个月减弱.

FTR的卡车装载指数, 哪个国家的工业货运量比较集中, 是否与-7持平.3% decline in industrial production forecasted for the full year 2020. 展望未来,FTR已将其对工业生产增长的预期下调至仅为3.但预计这仍将有助于推动货运量在明年3月前达到同比通胀水平,并在明年年底前回到大流行前的水平.

消费者在零售商品上的支出增加,导致零售库存与销售的比率降至历史最低水平. 重建库存, 特别是在零售业, should continue to provide a boost to truckload demand well into 2021.

零售进口出货量达到历史最高水平2.2020年9月达到1100万TEU. 在库存水平如此低的情况下,预计高于平均水平的进口出货量将继续存在.

11月初,来自南加州的长途货运被拒绝招标的数量急剧增加,这表明进口增长是12bet最近看到的市场状况趋紧趋势的主要驱动因素. 全国各地耗尽的库存需要补充. 12bet预计,随着第四季度晚些时候零售运输旺季的临近,南加州将会变得更加拥挤和昂贵.

经济指标和消费心理

美国银行(Bank of America)的消费者支出数据为消费者因大流行而改变的行为提供了可见度. 本月数据的主要结论与12bet最近几个月看到的情况一致.

首先,信用卡消费总额上升了2.截至10月31日的一周同比增长2%.

第二个, 向电子商务和网上购物的转变仍然是零售业的一个主要趋势. Growth in online retail spending has been consistently greater than 50% year-over-year, even though year-over-year declines in retail brick and mortar remain minimal. 这导致不包括汽车在内的总零售额同比增长约10%.

最后, 耐用品支出继续呈上升趋势,娱乐支出也在上升, travel and lodging and other related services or activities has remained low. People are traveling less and spending more on freight heavy things like furniture, 电子和家居装饰, which helps explain the growth we have seen in spot freight volumes.

失业趋势继续令人担忧. Even though new initial claims and continued claims are improving week-over-week, 这种情况比以往任何时候都要糟糕得多. 最初的索赔人数继续趋向于超过70万,而继续的索赔人数仍然大于6.每周七百万.